Skip to main content

MBP Leadership Shares Thoughts Around the State of the Multifamily Industry

Over the third quarter of 2023 the Federal Reserve (the “FED”) maintained its focus on managing inflation. After administering 11 rate hikes, the FED has decided to pause their hikes during the September FOMC meeting keeping the Federal Funds Rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%[1]. During the September meeting the FED maintained a hawkish outlook and indicated that rates could stay “higher for longer” while pointing to 2026 as the year that inflation could reach their 2.00% target[2]. This has played a significant role in the increase in long-term US Treasury Yields and the first trading day of October, the 10-year US Treasury spiked as high as 4.8%, 0.5%[3].

September 2023 CPI showed a 3.7% YoY increase and represented an increase of 0.4% over the prior month[4]. The decision to hold rates steady despite CPI and Core PCE being nearly double the FED’s target of 2.00% was made in preparation for the resumption of student loan payments in October 2023[5]. Additionally, the FED indicated in the September meeting that the lagging impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation was a factor that was taken into consideration when holding rates1.

The US added an estimated 336,000 jobs in September which accounted for the largest gain since January of this year[6]. September marks the 33rd consecutive month that the economy has added jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 4.2% YOY in September 2023 and 0.2% over the previous month, below economists’ estimates of 0.3%[7]. Hospitality, travel, and government were responsible for approximately 50% of the added jobs8.

MBP believes this could be a tailwind for the Dallas-Fort Worth (“DFW”) market as two major employment hubs, DFW airport and Dallas Love Field, both benefit from an increase in consumption of travel and hospitality related services.

Despite this, the DFW market construction pipeline could be one the biggest headwinds continuing throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.

As of Q3 2023, the number of units under construction in DFW is approximately 72,900 with 32,000 units projected to be delivered by the end of 2023[8],[9].

Still, MBP believes that strong in-migration will continue to be supported through job growth. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2022, Fort Worth had the largest population gain of any city in the nation with a population over 50,000 people[10]. Additionally, it is the fastest-growing city out of the top 30 most populous cities in the US, growing 4.1% since 2020 and is also projected to have the 5th highest population growth of the top metros in the US over the next five years15,[11]. Regarding job growth, as of August 2023, DFW is still outpacing the nation in job gain at 3.8% YOY[12]. DFW has had the nation’s largest increase in jobs this year at 90,600[13].

Despite short-term headwinds, MBP believes elevated home prices and high borrowing costs may continue to drive demand for apartments. Despite sales volume decreasing 8.23% year over year as of August 2023, average sales price rose 3.02%[14]. Additionally, as of September 28, 2023, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage on new applications submitted to Freddie Mac is 7.3%, up 4.3% from 3.0% just two years ago[15]. DFW single family months inventory is at 2.9 as of September 2023, remaining at historical lows and well below what many consider to be a healthy supply[16]. Lack of available supply continues to keep home prices elevated, despite the high cost of borrowing, creating demand tailwinds for multifamily.

 

 

[1] Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, September 20). https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230920a.htm

[2] Summary of economic projections – Federal Reserve Board. (2023, September 20). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230920.pdf

[3] US Treasury yield curve. US Treasury Yield Curve. (n.d.). https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

[4] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023, October 12). Consumer price index summary – 2023 M09 results. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

[5] Aid, F. S. (n.d.). Prepare for Student Loan Payments to Restart. Federal Student Aid – An OFFICE of the U.S. DEPARTMENT of EDUCATION. https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/repayment/prepare-payments-restart

[6] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023a, October 6). Employment situation summary – 2023 M09 results. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[7] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023c, October 12). Table A-1. current and real (constant 1982-1984 dollars) earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted – 2023 M09 results. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.t01.htm

[8] National Construction Pipeline – MMG Real Estate Advisors. MMG Real Estate Advisors -. (2023, October 17). https://mmgrea.com/research/national-pipeline-3q23/

[9] Dallas – fort worth multifamily report | mid-year 2023 | colliers. (n.d.). https://www.colliers.com/en/research/dallas/dallas-multifamily-report-midyear-2023

[10] Bureau, U. C. (2023, March 9). Population and Housing Unit Estimates Tables. Census.gov. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html

[11] U.S. metro areas with the highest projected 5-year population growth. (n.d.). https://info.siteselectiongroup.com/blog/us-metro-areas-with-the-highest-projected-5-year-population-growth

[12] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023e, September 27). Dallas-fort worth area employment – August 2023 : Southwest Information Office. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/regions/southwest/news-release/areaemployment_dallasfortworth.htm

[13] Dallas-fort worth multifamily market report. Real Estate Investment Services. (n.d.). https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/market-report/dallas-fort-worth/dallas-fort-worth-3q23-multifamily-market-report

[14] Housing Reports for Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Housing Reports – Real Estate Center. (n.d.). https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/research/housing-Reports/#!/MSA/Dallas-Fort_Worth-Arlington

[15] 30-year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States. FRED. (2023, September 21). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

[16] Monthly Report for Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington. Housing Reports – Real Estate Center. (n.d.). https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/research/housing-Reports/#!/MSA/Dallas-Fort_Worth-Arlington

 

The thoughts and insights shared in this blog are intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as professional advice. Readers are encouraged to seek appropriate expertise or consultation for specific situations or concerns.